Al Muller had numbers on parade Wednesday when he spoke to the Navarre Area Board of Realtors about where the local real estate market has been and where it is. But what his audience of nearly 90 really wanted to know was: How soon will things get better?
Muller’s answer: That pretty much depends on the intersection of projected & actual trend lines when it comes to sales. That would align the ability to buy based on actual income and when prices become affordable again. “When will the two lines meet?” Muller asked rhetorically. “Optimistically, by the end of 2009 ... pessimistically, by the end of 2010 ... realistically the middle of next year.”
Muller is with Metro Market Trends, which provides reporting and analysis information on real estate sales, tracking and market share for Florida and South Alabama. His PowerPoint presentation showed resales of single-family homes down 19 percent in Navarre and on Navarre Beach since 1991. Condo resales are down 58 percent for the same span. “Booms are followed by busts,” Muller said, “but bubbles are followed by carnage. ... This is the first time in our history that a real estate decline has pushed the economy into recession, instead of the other way around.” Declining home prices and an increasing foreclosure rate were factors he listed on both the positive and negative sides of the ledger. “That’s our medicine,” Muller said, “and there is no other answer but time.”
Unless, of course, President Barack Obama’s administration and key federal agencies intervene.
“We forget that the federal government now owns Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae,” Muller said, “and if they want to decide Monday that rates are 4 percent on a 30-year fixed loan, they can do it. ... This would mean something to people who could refinance or people who are sitting on the fence about buying.”
James Baker from Fort Walton Beach-based mortgage banker Baker and Lindsey Inc. saw elements of hope in the presentation. “It’s felt negative for a long time, but the data he has supports our feeling that there’s good mixed in with the bad,” Baker said. “What struck me most was hearing that it’s much worse in other areas. That means we can feel better about this market coming out of it sooner.”
And what about those 4 percent loans? “Definitely not a pipe dream,” Baker said. “It would be one of the most effective things the government can do. It would help people buy homes, and if they refinanced with that rate, the value and the payments would be more in line. That would make people feel better about their homes, and that would directly affect foreclosures.”
Labels: Business, Credit Partners, Deals, Finance, Florida, Florida Panhandle, Foreclosure, Investment, Panama City, Real Estate, Short Sale, Vacation
